The 10th and the Money

The 10^th District has been home to some big races in the last two election cycles so it’s hard to imagine the 10th District race to be bigger–but it will be.  The district has become competitive over the last few years due to changing demographics.  As Illinois has grown steadily more Democratic, the 10^th District has shifted in that direction as well, changing it from a relatively safe moderate Republican district into the swing district it is today.  10^th District voters are (in general) well-off, socially liberal and fiscally conservative.  In 2006, Dan Seals was able to ride a Democratic wave to a close defeat, even though he received minimal support from the national party.  In 2008, Mark Kirk was able to hold off Dan Seals in another narrow victory.  Now that he has moved on to run for U.S. Senate, we are left with the rare opportunity of a swing district with no incumbent.  All of this leads to one major conclusion; this race is going to be expensive.

In 2006, Mark Kirk raised and spent over 3 million dollars.  In 2008, that number jumped to nearly 5.5 million.  Dan Seals also raised and spent a lot of money, though not quite as much as Kirk.  He totaled just under 2 million in 2006 and 3.5 million in 2008.  Kirk’s abilities as a fundraiser are top-notch, and both the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) were heavily involved in the 2008 race.  Seals should benefit through his familiarity with both the big donors of the 10^th District and the higher-ups of the DCCC.  Dold will have some work to do to ensure that he is on equal financial footing.  I don’t know what his district-wide name ID is, but I am certain it’s much lower than Seals.  He doesn’t have the advantage of incumbency or the time to rack up a campaign warchest.  Chicago is one of the most expensive media markets in the country.  A week of ads on network television will run you about a half million dollars.

Yes, that’s right.  One week.  Half a million.

Doing a little rough math, Seals and Dold are going to need to raise over 2 million dollars each, if they want to win that is.  Anything less would threaten the ability to execute a full ad blitz in the final days of the campaign.  Both men have already received help from the national parties, and they will continue to do so.  You’ll be seeing and hearing a lot from Seals and Dold as the campaign moves forward.

CQ Politics has just 18 of the 435 Congressional races listed under “Tossup”.  IL-10 is the only one in Illinois.  Dan Seals and Bob Dold are smart, attractive, scandal-free (as far as we know) candidates who ran strong primary campaigns.  The national parties will both have this district near the top of their lists.  We are fortunate enough to be able to see the best that the Democrats and Republicans have to offer.

Stay tuned for my next post in which I will be looking more closely at the candidates.

Primary Recap

The first step in setting the stage for the general election is to analyze the primary race.  The way that a candidate runs a primary campaign will often provide big clues to what he or she will do in the general election.

I’ll start with Dan Seals, simply because we know more about him.  Seals started the primary in a favorable position, but he also faced a strong challenge coming from State Rep. Julie Hamos.  Hamos, a Springfield veteran, received the money and endorsements from establishment Democrats.   Seals also had the challenge of history; since he had run and lost in both 2006 and 2008, he risked being branded a loser.  Fortunately for him, his years in the district translated into endorsements and support from local township organizations.  With his huge lead in name identification and his relationships with local democrats, Seals was able to run a quiet, efficient campaign.  He didn’t have to make any crazy promises or pull any stunts to beat Hamos, just used a solid organization that did exactly what it needed to win and nothing more.

Bob Dold is the owner of a pest control company and a first-time candidate.  Since he was a political unknown, he was able to place himself in an excellent position in the race.  State Rep. Beth Coulson, the frontrunner in the race, had the organizational support and the endorsements from heavyweight Republicans like Jim Edgar and John Porter.  In fact, Dold faced a lot of the same challenges in his race that Seals faced on the Democratic side.  His opponent is a known elected official with big endorsements behind her.  Dold came out strong touting his business credentials.  He positioned himself as moderate but further right than Beth Coulson.  She didn’t say or do much during the campaign beyond touting her endorsements.  Dold took advantage of this vacuum by creating memorable ads (the Dold with a “d” and not an “e” song was a bit odd but definitely catchy).  In the end, his work with township organizations and the people of the 10^th carried him to a solid victory over Beth Coulson.

The 10^th District primaries boiled down to a battle between establishment politicians and grassroots organizations.  Dold and Seals both showed that a concerted effort to connect with the people can overcome a lead in endorsements and money.  It will be very, very interesting to see how both of these campaigns change their narratives to suit the general electorate and each other.  And I’ll be looking at that later this week.

The General Begins

It has certainly been nice taking a couple weeks off after the primary. Not only has it let me recharge my batteries, but it has also given the Seals and Dold campaigns some time to transition into the general election.

I thought I’d jump back into this race by offering a general overview of how it might play out. The primary is all about capturing a small margin of the electorate and doing everything in your power to get them to turn out. In the much larger general election, that strategy won’t work. The ground game stays important, but the air war ramps up in intensity. This race will be expensive; as one of the top House races in the country there’s no way that it won’t get pricey. DCCC Chairman Congressman Chris Van Hollen was in town today for a Dan Seals fundraiser, so I’m certain the DCCC will be heavily involved in this race. Given the attacks that came out right after primary day, both the NRCC and the DCCC will probably spend a lot of money here over the next 9 months.

So, my plan is to take a look overall at strengths and weaknesses of Dold and Seals, along with a look at how they ran their primary campaigns, the likely cost of the election, and whatever else I feel like.

If there are any suggestions or other things you’d like me to touch on, please let me know via comments or email (10thdistrictadvocate@gmail.com).

And again, thanks for reading. The primary was fun to cover; I hope you’ll stick with me through the general as well.

Results

Well, we’ve certainly seen some close races tonight. Seals holds on to win, 48-46%. Dold comes up stronger than I had thought and posts a solid 8 point victory over State Rep. Beth Coulson. Arie Friedman, who had been generating a lot of buzz going into election day finishes a disappointing 4th place. Alexi held off a late Hoffman charge to win 39-33, with Cheryle Jackson picking up 19 percent. Mark Kirk, as expected, won handily. The Governor’s race is too close to call on both sides at this point, with Pat Quinn and Billy Brady holding onto slim margins.

As far as my predictions went, I think I did pretty well. Looks like I’ve biffed on the Governor’s race, but my picks for U.S. Senate and the 10th District were dead on, even though the Seals-Hamos contest was closer than I had thought it would be.
Congratulations to all of tonight’s winners. The general election campaign starts tomorrow.

Predictions

Tomorrow is Election Day, and I hope that all of you have either voted early or will be voting tomorrow. Since so many of our fine 10th District candidates will be out of the race by tomorrow night, I thought it would be interesting to share my predictions for this race and a few others across the state.

Illinois Governor

Democrat – Dan Hynes. I think the early prison release scandal will prove to be too much for Quinn. Hynes wins a squeaker, 51-49.

Republican – Jim Ryan. Ryan will coast by on name recognition. McKenna will finish closely with Dillard. Ryan wins with no more than 30% of the vote.

U.S. Senate

Democrat – Alexi Giannoulias. Money and name recognition win the day here. Alexi holds off Hoffman’s late charge due to his late ads. Cheryle Jackson will only come away with about 15 percent of the vote. Giannoulias wins 45-35.

Republican – Mark Kirk. This one should be no surprise to residents of the 10th District. Kirk is a strong candidate who will, at the very least, put up a strong showing in the general. Kirk in a landslide, say 65 or 70%.

Now, saving the best for last, I continue the mission of this blog to give you my thoughts on the 10th District Congressional race.

Democrat – Dan Seals. Despite the best efforts of Elliott Richardson, this has always been a two-way race. Julie Hamos had a lot of buzz at the start of this race, in addition to a lot of establishment endorsements and money. However, it is the community ties built by Dan Seals over the last 5 years that will ultimately give him the nomination for his 3rd run. Dan Seals comes away with this one, 60-40.

Republican – Bob Dold. Like the Democratic race, this shook out to a contest between 2 people, an insider and an outsider. While Beth Coulson has the endorsements of powerful Republicans like Jim Edgar, Dold’s work in building a grassroots campaign will bring him to victory. Endorsements don’t win elections, a solid ground game does. Dold comes in over Coulson 35-30.

I’d like to take this opportunity to say that I’ve really enjoyed sharing my thoughts on the news and events of this Congressional primary race. Thank you all for reading, and I look forward to covering the general election.